Generation When?
http://www.edge-online.com/magazine/generation-when
Extracts:
Since the NES, every five years or so a distinct new wave of technology has washed across the industry, bringing with it new power and functions to a market galvanised by the promise of faster, better, more. Change was once always tantalisingly close.
The current console cycle, which began with Xbox 360 in 2005, shows little sign of ending.
Wedbush Morgan Securities’ Michael Pachter, bluntly refutes that, stating in a recent investor guidance email newsletter: “We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all.”
Not that it really matters what you think. As Pachter says: “The public has zero power in this.” In a landscape in which Nintendo did the unthinkable with Wii and found new audiences for videogames with console technology that didn’t even exceed the capacity of the most powerful example of the previous generation, enthusiast gamers are too small a proportion of a newly burgeoning videogame market to count.
Or, conversely, they have a lot to lose by introducing one. The need for each manufacturer to reap profit from the current generation is paramount. Sony’s financial reports in June 2008 put losses incurred by PS3 at over $3 billion and, overall, SCE is still losing money, even if it’s a little less every quarter ($612.4 million in the financial year that ended March 2009) Microsoft, meanwhile, may have finally brought Xbox’s division, Entertainment and Devices, to profitability in 2007, having lost some $4 billion producing the original Xbox, but today’s financial figures don’t include the estimated $1-billion-plus three-year warranty programme the company initiated as a result of Xbox 360’s ‘red ring of death’ and E74 error problems.
It’s important to note that Nintendo’s position is very different to that of Sony and Microsoft. Cash-rich and powerful with publishers, Nintendo can afford to build a new console. But Pachter is adamant that ‘Wii HD’ will only match the power of PS3 and 360. “They always had the plan to get some traction with Wii and then bring out Wii HD. I don’t know if it’s end 2010 or a year later, but it’s coming,” he tells us. Wii HD would be a canny business move.
Publishers and developers are increasingly comfortable releasing games for current-generation technology, having reduced costs and streamlined production processes. And with Nintendo able to build a system that’s straightforward for developers to port their 360 and PS3 games from, and to, it would be an easy sell to ensure that principal game licences like FIFA, Tiger Woods, Call Of Duty, Guitar Hero and GTA appear on it from its earliest days on sale.
Such a console can only delay any wishes from game-makers to move to a new generation. Publishers have put massive investments into producing games for today’s hardware, and the prospect of ramping up production for a new generation, and the starting-from-scratch installed base that would entail – cannot be attractive.
All the while, however, the idea of consoles as they currently exist is being eroded. It might be difficult to imagine forthcoming streaming game services like OnLive, David Perry’s Gaikai and AMD’s Otoy project practically implemented on existing broadband infrastructure, but their potential can’t be ignored
Yeah I definitely can't see them waiting that long either. I too see these current systems being slightly upgraded ala GC to Wii. That will make it easier for developers and cheaper for both developers and console manufacturers. You're not going to see Sony and MS bring out some $500 plus system in fact I would be surprised if they even released a $400 system. I'm expecting more around $350. I fully expect Microsoft to be the first to launch because they've already had a system out since Fall of 2005 and we're coming up on the 360's 4th anniversary. I'm expecting 2011 and definitely no later then 2012. Like I said the biggest push for MS right now is to adopt Blu-ray as the new medium. While it made sense back in 2005 to stay away from it it's now making much more sense to move on and adopt due to cheaper costs now and better hardware.I don't know if I agree with you pricewise. Sony can't offer a $350 console right now, and theirs has been on the market for 2 1/2 years and technically has been downgraded from the original design. Even if they just make minor upgrades to it, they're going to be right back at $400 if they try to launch in 2012.
The more I think about it, the more I think that Sony is going to try and ride out the storm and stick with the PS3 much longer than this generation goes. I think they'd be more likely to counter with a new design and reintroduce backward compatibility or something like that. Assuming they are finally able to break even on PS3 sales by the end of the year or next year, I just can't see them launching a new console right when their current model finally becomes profitable.
If someone at that organization comes up with a clever marketing scheme (assuming they can tear themselves away from the assclowns who currently handle their god awful marketing), I think it would be the best course of action to simply rebrand while the other companies introduce new models. Inferior technology has won the last 3 generations of console gaming so they could have a shot.
Yeah Sony can't quite get the PS3 down to $350 right now I'm assuming but Fall of 2012 is still over 3 years away which is a lot of time to cut costs. I too think that Sony will try to ride this gen out as long as they can but no more then a year from when Microsoft launches their new system. So depending on when that happens a new Sony system would likely launch Fall 2012 or Fall 2013.However, Microsoft? Definite new release. The only thing that would possibly change that is if they sincerely believe a directed 360 with Natal could be an answer to Wii. If so, they're as stupid as Sony.
I went with 360 for the same reason. Because 360 launched earlier, the price came down faster too, so I jumped in.
But the question for me is what form will these new consoles take? The Wii is like a mighty exclaimation mark for other companies saying: hey we CAN repackage old goods at a low cost to ourselves and the consumer doesn't care. So will the new consoles be old graphics tech with new spins on other features? 360 is triple core now, do you think it will be 10 core next gen? With 1gb RAM? etc?
So I had to chop alot of the article down because it was so long. But the other stuff is just as relevant, namely talking about firstly PC upgrades and secondly these new OnDemand gaming services.
One platform, however, isn’t a slave to generational change. With new graphics cards and CPUs being released every month, PCs have always provided a technical benchmark for consoles to aspire to. But with the highest-specification PC already running a game like Crysis at fantastical resolutions and with the benefits of DirectX 10-fuelled graphical effects, consoles are already falling significantly behind. In three years, might the kind of people who buy the first consoles of a new generation have gravitated towards PC for their thrills?
Projects like OnLive remove the whole idea of having a console in the first place
Pachter is clear that it’s not relevant, saying: “PC games are such a small slice of the overall business now that it’s almost irrelevant if there’s a quality difference.” But it’s a complex question, not least because of the changes that PC gaming is currently undergoing. PC technology leaders are emphasising other uses for hardware power, seeing GPUs as ideal for such computationally intensive tasks as AI and physics. In relation to the fear that graphics would therefore take a hit, Roy Taylor of Nvidia told us last year: “If we’ve got the baseline graphics at a point where people say that that’s good enough, then no. I think we’re getting to a point where baseline graphics are somewhere around Crysis and that’s pretty damn good. What we need is not more photorealism, but more going on.” Could developers continue to create games that can take advantage of this power and also easily be ported to the current generation of consoles? Might a gulf in power be harmful to the ongoing development of games on PC?
All the while, however, the idea of consoles as they currently exist is being eroded. It might be difficult to imagine forthcoming streaming game services like OnLive, David Perry’s Gaikai and AMD’s Otoy project practically implemented on existing broadband infrastructure, but their potential can’t be ignored. “The concept is logical,” Perry tells us. “We buy the highest end, so the hardware is far more expensive than anybody could normally buy, and finally your gaming experience moves where the world is at. Conceptually, would you rather have a machine sit on your shelf for six to eight years with dust all over it before you can taste the next level? Or would you rather move with the times? Me, I’d rather experience it.”
And then there’s Apple. Pachter admits that he knows no one at the company, but believes that it makes sense for it to build on the success of iPhone and create a living-room computer that plays media (Apple TV style), supports Skype-like internet phone and video calls, and runs applications according to principles set by the App Store, all using similar technology to what Apple is already selling in its MacBooks. It wouldn’t represent a new generation, but it could cause for consoles the reshuffling of attitudes that iPhone has done for handhelds.
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digital-foundry-how-microsoft-could-build-a-new-360
So the cat's out of the bag or thereabouts. Xbox bosses will wish he hadn't, but Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer says that a "new Xbox" bundled with, or even integrating, the Project Natal 3D camera will launch in 2010, just days after the company distanced itself from talk of a new machine. Bearing in mind this is the same firm that refused to confirm the existence of the Xbox 360 Arcade SKU even when photos showing the packaging in actual shops appeared online, this is clearly something of an unplanned turn of events at best, a marketing disaster at worst.
The news first emerged when 1UP carried a story claiming the existence of new Xbox hardware in its most recent podcast, tantalising its audience by promising that along with bundled Project Natal, the console itself would be an enhanced, more powerful but still backwards-compatible version of the current 360 architecture, something I was quick to dismiss in a follow-up blog post on the Digital Foundry channel.
More at the link
Yeah definitely more at the link. While it's just a "theory" of why they think there may be a new 360 launched in 2010 it is a very good read but he also gives very plausible reasons as to why there may not be a new 360 released in 2010 at the end of the article. Personally I think Microsoft will go the route Nintendo made in designing their next console which I think will launch in 2011. It will be a Blu-ray system with modest upgrades all around from the current 360. Sony will do the same and while they would prefer to hold off as long as possible they'll probably launch it no longer then 1 year after MS. Nintendo will be quite interesting to see because now that the Wii is a proven success they'll be able to really beef up the specs on it and they'll likely have to.